Evaluation of the influence of systematic components on drought indices under climate scenarios in the upper basin of the Ángulo River, Michoacán
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35830/cn.vi97.953Keywords:
Deseasonalization, Drought indices, SARIMA, Seasonal variability, Hydrologic basinAbstract
This study evaluates the effect of deseasonalization and trend removal in precipitation, streamflow, and groundwater level series to improve drought index accuracy (SPI, SDI, and SGI) in the upper Angulo River basin, Michoacán. SARIMA models were applied to isolate genuine hydrological anomalies, comparing indices from original and adjusted series. Results show that processed indices exhibit greater sensitivity and realism in detecting meteorological and hydrological droughts, avoiding biases from seasonal patterns and long-term trends. It is concluded that these processes are essential for accurate drought characterization in basins with high seasonal variability.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Giovanni Carlo Flores Fernández, José Jaime Madrigal Barrera, Sonia Tatiana Sánchez Quispe
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Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Coordination of Scientific Research, Av. Francisco J. Mujica, Building "C-2", Ciudad Universitaria, Morelia, Michoacán, México, C.P. 58030. All rights reserved. This magazine may be reproduced for non-profit purposes, as long as the full source and its email address are cited. Otherwise it requires prior written permission from the institution and author.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
